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Tuesday, April 30, 2013

24 B The Risk Register

The risk register ranks risks by the dollar value of each risk according to the operational definition of risk given earlier. Constructing the risk register on a spreadsheet allows risks to be sorted by dollar value so that the highest risks are always on top of the list. The risk register also facilitates keeping all risks in the same data base even though management actions may be active on only the top five or ten at any time. When a high risk is mitigated the expected dollar value of the risk is reduced and it falls out of the top five or ten but is still on the list. This enables reviewing mitigated risks to ensure they remain mitigated or to readdress a risk at a later time when all the higher risks have been mitigated to even lower values. An example of a simple risk register constructed on a spread sheet is shown in figure 9.

Figure 9.  An example template of a risk register constructed in columns on a spread sheet.
The risk type and impact if risk occurs are usually described as “if”, “then” statements. This helps the management team remember specifically what each risk entails as they conduct reviews over the life of the activity. Expected values are expressed in dollars, which facilitates both ranking and decisions about how much resources should be assigned to mitigation activities. I am assuming of course that in managing activities in your organization it is the practice to hold some fraction of the budget in reserve to handle unforeseen events. It is this reserve budget that is assigned to risk mitigation activities. Risk mitigation actions should be budgeted and scheduled as part on on-going work. A failure many inexperienced managers make is handling risks outside of the mainline budget and schedule. This undisciplined approach often leads to risk management degenerating into an action item list and finally to a reactive approach to unexpected events rather that a proactive approach to reduce the risks systematically.
A more complete risk register template than the example shown in figure 9 might contain columns for the risk number, title, description (if), impact (then), types (three columns: cost, schedule, quality or technical), probability of occurrence, cost impact, schedule impact, mitigation plan and mitigation schedule. The form of the risk register template is not critical so the team managing the risks should construct a template that contains the information they feel they need to effectively manage risks.
The risk register, if properly maintained and managed, is a sufficient tool for risk management on small and short duration projects. Setting aside an arbitrary management reserve budget to manage risks is ok for small projects. Portions of the reserve are allocated to mitigation of risks and the budgets and expenses for risk mitigation can be folded into the overall cost management system. Large, long duration projects or high value projects warrant a more focused approach to budgeting for risk management.
If you find that the pace of blog posts isn’t compatible with the pace you  would like to maintain in studying this material you can buy the book “The Manager’s Guide for Effective Leadership” in hard copy or for Kindle at:
or hard copy or for nook at:
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Thursday, April 25, 2013

24 A Introduction to Risk Management

The following three lectures define risk, outline a risk management process and provide examples of templates useful for risk management.
Risk is the consequence of things happening that negatively impact the performance of an organization’s planned activities. Risks arise from events that occur inside and outside an organization. The consequence of the event can impact the quality, cost or schedule of an activity, or some combination of these effects. There is risk in any activity but there are usually more risks associated with activities that are new to the organization. New activities include the introduction of new products or services or changes to the processes, people, materials or machines used to produce existing products or services. Risks to stable products and services arise from unplanned changes to the internal environment or changes in the external environment, such as the economy, costs of materials, labor market, customer preferences or actions by a competitor, a regulating body or a government agency. An effective manager faces up to risks and manages risks so that the negative impacts are minimized.
Definition of Risk
There is an operational definition of risk that aids in managing risk. This definition is:
Risk R is The Probability p of an Undesirable Event Occurring; Multiplied by The Consequence of the Event Occurrence measured in $, or R=p x $.
This definition allows risks to be quantified and ranked in relative importance so that the manager knows which risks to address first and to evaluate how much investment is reasonable to eliminate or reduce the consequence of the risk. The definition measures risk in dollars. Thus impacts to the quality of a product or service or to the schedule of delivering the product or service are converted to costs. Impacts to quality are converted to dollar costs via estimated warranty costs, cost of the anticipated loss of customers or loss of revenue due to anticipated levels of discounting prices. Schedule delays are converted to dollar costs by estimating the extra costs of labor during the delays and/or the loss of revenue due to lost sales caused by the schedule delays.
The key to good risk management is to address the highest risk first. There are three reasons to address the highest risk first. First is that mitigating a high risk can result in changes to plans, designs, approaches or other major elements in an activity. The earlier these changes are implemented the lower the cost of the overall activity because money and people resources are not wasted on work that has to be redone later. The second reason is that some activities may fail due to the impossibility of mitigating an inherent risk. The earlier this is determined the fewer resources are spent on the failed activity thus preserving resource for other activities. The third reason is that any activity is continually competing for resources with other activities. An activity that has mitigated its biggest risks has a better chance of competing for continued resource allocation than an activity that has gone on for some time and still has high risks.
Managing Risk
Managing risk is accomplished by taking actions before risks occur rather than reacting to occurrences of undesirable events. The steps in effective risk management are:
1.     Listing the most important requirements that the activity must meet to satisfy its customer(s). These are called Cardinal Requirements
2.     Identifying every risk to an activity that might occur that would have significant consequence to meeting each of the Cardinal Requirements
3.     Estimating the probability of occurrence of each risk and its consequences in terms of dollars
4.     Ranking the risks by the magnitude of the product of the probability and dollar consequence (i.e. by the definition of risk given above)
5.     Identifying proactive actions that can lower the probability of occurrence and/or the cost of occurrence of the top five or ten risks
6.     Selecting among the identified actions for those that are cost effective
7.     Assigning resources (funds and people) to the selected actions
8.     Managing the selected action until its associated risk is mitigated
9.     Identifying any new risks resulting from mitigation activities
10.  Replace mitigated risks with lower ranking or new risks as each is mitigated
11.  Conduct regular (weekly or biweekly) risk management reviews to:
·       Status risk mitigation actions
·       Brainstorm for new risks
·       Review that mitigated risks stay mitigated
In identifying risks it is important to involve as many people that are related to the activity as possible. This means people from senior management, your organization, other participating organizations and supporting organizations. Senior managers see risks that workers do not and workers see risks that managers don’t recognize. It is helpful to use a list of potential sources of risk in order to guide people’s thinking to be comprehensive. Your list might look like that shown in figure 7.

Figure 7 An example template for helping identify possible sources of risk to the customer’s cardinal requirements.
It also helps ensure completeness of understanding risks if each risk is classified as a technical, cost or schedule risk or a combination of these categories.
Risk Summary Grid and Risk Register
Two useful templates used in risk management are the risk summary grid and the risk register. The risk summary grid is a listing of the top ranked risks on a grid of probability vs. impact. The risk summary gird is excellent for showing all top risks on a single graphic and grouping the risks as low, medium or high. Typical grids are 3 x 3 or 5 x 5. An example 5 x 5 template is shown in figure 8.

Figure 8 An example of a 5 x 5 risk summary grid
The 5 x 5 risk summary grid enables risks to be classified as low, medium or high; typically color coded green, yellow and red respectively, and ranked in order of importance. Note that the definitions for low and medium are not standard. The definition used in figure 8 is conservative in limiting low risk to the six squares in the lower left of the grid. Others, e.g. the Risk Management Guide for DOD Acquisition (An excellent tutorial on risk management that is available as a free download at define the entire first column plus six other lower left squares as low risk.
Relative importance is the product of probability and impact. Identified risks are assigned to a square according to the estimates of their probability of occurrence and impact to the overall activity. In figure 8 there is one medium risk, shown by the x in the square with a probability 0.3, impact 7 and therefore having a relative importance of 2.1. The numbers shown for impact are arbitrary and must be defined appropriate to the activity for which risk is being managed.
A typical approach is to construct a four column by six row table with Impact being the heading of the first column and the numbers 1,3,5,7,9 (or whatever five numbers or letters you choose) in each succeeding row of the first column. The remaining three columns are labeled Technical, Schedule and Cost. Each box in the rows under the Technical, Schedule and Cost headings is defined appropriately for the activity at risk. For example, costs could be defined as either percentage of budget or in actual monetary units. Similarly schedule can be defined as percent slip or actual time slip.
The process using a 3 x 3 risk summary grid typically assigns risks as 0.1, 0.3 or 0.9 and impacts as 1, 3 or 9. There are three squares for each of the low, medium and high risk classifications with relative importance values ranging from 0.1 to 8.1 according to the products of probability and impact. Specific processes or numerical values are not important. What is important is having a process that allows workers and managers to assess and rank risks and to communicate these risks to each other, and in some cases to customers. The simple risk summary grids are useful tools for accomplishing these objectives and are most useful in the early stages of the life cycle of an activity and for communicating an overall picture of risks. The risk summary grid can be used as a tool in risk management meetings but a better tool is the risk register discussed in the next lecture.

If you find that the pace of blog posts isn’t compatible with the pace you  would like to maintain in studying this material you can buy the book “The Manager’s Guide for Effective Leadership” in hard copy or for Kindle at:
or hard copy or for nook at:
or hard copy or E-book at:

Friday, April 19, 2013

23 B Risk Management, Theory of Constraints and Process Improvement

I include risk management in this course because poor risk management is the second highest contributor to failure in projects or in major changes in operations for manufacturing and service organizations. (Don’t forget that team dynamics is the primary contributor to failure in such activities.) A second reason for including risk management is that inexperienced managers are the ones that typically ignore risk management or just give it lip service. If you are going to be an effective leader you must understand and practice sound risk management. Risk management is the topic of the following lecture.
I include theory of constraints because it is often left out of treatments of control and in some traditional approaches to manufacturing this failure leads to promoting techniques that are inappropriate and cause inefficiencies. The lecture following risk management is an introduction to theory of constraints and I hope it leads the student to further study of this important topic.
The remainder of this course addresses that portion of control that deals with what is typically called process improvement or quality improvement. The objective of the process improvement part of control is to assess work processes and to make continuous improvements to these processes so that employees’ jobs are easier and more cost efficient due to fewer and fewer quality problems and to reduced use of resources; including labor, materials and maintenance.
There are many versions of process improvement in use. Six Sigma and total quality management (TQM) are two popular versions. Kaizan is a Japanese term for continuous improvement and many organizations use this term to describe their process improvement work. Sometimes Kaizan is used to simplify processes without gathering data and some quality gurus are critical of non-data driven process improvement. Another term used by manufacturing organizations is Lean. Lean is using a set of tools or methods that improves manufacturing processes by eliminating waste and errors. Some organizations combine Lean and Six Sigma into Lean Six Sigma. Whereas both Six Sigma and TQM are proven to be effective I favor TQM, or data driven Kaizen if you prefer the Japanese term. Let me give short descriptions of the two approaches and then discuss the reasons I favor TQM.
Six Sigma thoroughly trains a small number of people and then empowers these trained specialists to work with other workers and managers to improve processes throughout the enterprise. These specialists get titles according to the amount of training they have received, e.g. those with extensive training are usually called black belts or master black belts. An experienced manager is selected to manage the specialists and their process improvement activities. Other managers are given overview training so that they know what to expect and what is expected of them.
In the version of TQM that I have practiced all employees in the enterprise, workers and managers, receive about 50 hours of basic training in process improvement techniques. A very few receive additional training in special techniques and serve as a resource to all the workers and managers. After training, all workers and managers are empowered to work on process improvement of the processes they own, i.e. the processes they use in their day to day work. There is a coordinator to authorize teams and facilitate access to any data needed by the teams or to the specialists that provide analysis beyond the capabilities of the team. The authorization is necessary to prevent workers from getting involved in several teams at once and impacting productivity by spending too much time on process improvement at the expense of process execution.
Either of these approaches is effective and if your enterprise is already involved in one of these or a related approach then stick with it. If your enterprise is not yet involved in process improvement then I strongly recommend the TQM approach. The advantage of TQM is that it empowers every employee to control processes they own. This empowerment results in two benefits compared to approaches like Six Sigma that empower only a few specially trained personnel. First, empowering employees to have control over their own processes is highly motivating. It is one of the things required for employees to reach Maslow’s highest level of needs fulfillment, i.e. self-actualization. Second, employees at any level know more about the processes they own than their supervisors, or any specialist, because they are more intimately involved with the processes. They feel, smell, hear and experience details of their process that supervisors or specialists do not experience. They are better at recognizing what aspects of their processes need improvement first, second and so on. They are also better at developing improvement approaches because often they have been thinking about better ways to do their job for a long time. They are inclined to look for improvements that make their job easier as well as more cost effective.
The disadvantages of the Six Sigma type approaches from my experience are that sometimes the workers resent outside experts coming to change their work processes and the outside experts aren’t as familiar with the work processes as are the employees that own the processes. I have observed that the process owners tend to create simple and effective improvements whereas the highly trained experts tend to go for elegant and expensive improvements, but not necessarily any better improvements. Another disadvantage is that the experts attack the most important processes first and work their way through enterprise processes a few at a time, depending on how many experts there are. With TQM all processes are subject to attention at any time. The process owners naturally prioritize processes they own but even simple processes get attention that are unlikely to be addressed in a Six Sigma approach until all higher priority processes have been addressed.
An apparent disadvantage of TQM is that all employees must be trained and therefore the training costs tend to be higher than for Six Sigma, assuming only a few employees are given the full Six Sigma training. I believe this extra cost is more than offset by the more comprehensive attack on process improvement that TQM achieves and from the increase in employee motivation that results from empowering employees to have control over their own processes. TQM also requires a more careful introduction to empowering employees after they have been trained. There must be boundaries to the empowerment and these boundaries must be carefully communicated to the employees as they are empowered. Otherwise employees adapt their individual definitions of empowerment and some naturally expand the boundaries beyond what is acceptable in an efficient enterprise that is under control. Obvious examples of items employees are not empowered to change include recipes, standards and accounting rules; changes of which must be handled very carefully and usually with management involvement.
This is an introductory lecture and no exercise is required unless the student is unfamiliar with text book methods of control for manufacturing, projects and service organizations and with the differences between financial accounting and management accounting. If you aren’t familiar with these methods of control and cost management then take the time now to learn the basics. It is important to effective process improvement that changes to processes do not violate sound basic principles. It may be frustrating to put this course on hold while you study other subjects for several weeks but it is beneficial in the long term. If you are familiar with these basics then go on to the next lecture.

If you find that the pace of blog posts isn’t compatible with the pace you  would like to maintain in studying this material you can buy the book “The Manager’s Guide for Effective Leadership” at:
or hard copy or for nook at:
or hard copy or E-book at:

Tuesday, April 9, 2013

23A Introduction to Control and Process Improvement

The lectures up to this point deal with the management functions of staffing, motivating and communicating. These functions are the portion of effective leadership that derives from the fundamentals of Theory Z and are the people related functions. Executing these functions effectively are necessary to achieving highly motivated workers.  Now I turn to processes. Effective organizations require both highly motivated and well trained people and effective processes. Even the most highly motivated people with superior skills cannot be successful if they are encumbered with processes that produce defective products or services. In addition, even the best processes encounter problems from time to time due to changes in input materials, worker actions, business environment or machine related problems that are often subtle and hard to identify. Therefore the effective leader must have the skills needed to improve processes that produce defective outputs and the skills to fix and maintain good processes when unforeseen changes cause problems.
Processes involve the management function of control. Control is a complex management function and is specialized to the organization type. Whereas most of the fundamental principles of control are the same for different types of organization the implementation is vastly different for manufacturing, service or project organizations. Also specialization is necessary for nonprofit organizations compared to profit based organizations and within the many types of service organizations, e.g. health care vs. education.
A comprehensive treatment of the control function is beyond the scope of this course. This course treats four aspects of control that apply to all organizations. These are risk management, theory of constraints, process improvement and leading the team. Early in this course effective leadership was defined to be derived from combining the principles of Theory Z and Process Improvement. The theory of constraints can be considered part of process improvement although it was developed separately and is treated separately here. I do not know the formal history of risk management but it is certainly a critical part of the control function and a necessary skill for effective leaders so it is included here. Leading the team is of course the fundamental job of the organization’s manager and I’ll end with a brief description of a process that has proven effective for many organizations.
An important tool related to control that is essential in today’s environment is Taguchi methods for design of experiments. These are statistical methods that require a well-trained person to use effectively. Low and mid-level managers should have sufficient training to be able to identify when Taguchi methods might apply to problems in their organizations. Every enterprise should have access to a person with extensive training in these methods. It can be the same person experienced in statistics as necessary for oversight of process improvement activities discussed in later lectures. It is important to allow only well trained individuals to design and monitor Taguchi experiments. Properly used Taguchi methods save time, money and result in higher quality designs and products. However, used by inadequately trained personnel these methods can lead to costly mistakes.
I do not treat Taguchi design of experiments further in this book because of the extensive training necessary to be of value. Based on my experience with these methods I recommend that students seek training from trainers familiar with the students’ type of organization. Seeing examples of the methods use on problems familiar to students help them recognize where the methods can be useful in their organizations. Students in engineering organizations can benefit from reading Don P. Clausing’s book “Total Quality Development: A Step-By-Step Guide to World Class Concurrent Engineering” and Madhav S. Phadke’s book “Quality Engineering Using Robust Design”. Students in manufacturing, research in any science, and perhaps all students, may benefit from Genichi Taguchi and Yoshiko Yokoyama’s “Taguchi Methods: Design of Experiments”, although I have not personally read this book. I regret that I cannot recommend specific training sources for students in marketing, advertising, bio-technologies and other fields involving statistics but I suspect some research would find such sources.
In studying Taguchi’s methods do not confuse Taguchi’s strategy for quality engineering with his design of experiments methods. Only engineering managers need to be familiar with Taguchi’s strategy for quality engineering, which has the three stages of system design, parameter design and tolerance design. Taguchi’s design of experiment methods have much wider utility. Reading Wikipedia’s discussion of Taguchi methods provides students with a good starting point for more in-depth study of methods pertaining to their work.
The primary emphasis of the remainder of this course is on process improvement. Before beginning these subjects I provide some background relating to control in order to convince the student that control must be tailored to the type of organization.
Background on control
I assume that the student is part of an enterprise that has effective cost and schedule controls in place and that the student understands these methods. Presumably these are standard methods of control for manufacturing, services or projects as appropriate for the student’s organization. If these assumptions are incorrect and/or the student doesn’t know how control differs for manufacturing, services and projects then self-study is needed. I recommend Part II, Chapters 4-10 of “Production and Operations Management” by James B. Dilworth.
Unless the student is in the financial organization of the enterprise study in management accounting is recommended. Management accounting differs from the accounting used in financial departments, which is often tailored to tax laws and accounting standards. These tax and associated accounting standards are fine for their intended purpose but they do not provide a simple and clear picture of the costs of operating an organization or enterprise. This often leads to managers doing stupid and incorrect things in attempts to manipulate overheads in hopes of reducing costs. To easily understand and manage costs correctly the methods of management accounting that focus on cash inflows, cash outflows and true product costs are preferable. A book I have found helpful is “Managerial Accounting- Concepts for Planning, Control, and Decision Making” by Ray H. Garrison.
Control methods must match the organization type; applying methods appropriate to manufacturing to projects results in drastic decreases in effectiveness and vice versa. A few comments help to explain why control methods must match the organization type.
A manufacturing organization might have a split of costs of 80% material and 20 % labor whereas a project might have 80% labor and 20% material. In this example materials costs drive manufacturing costs and effective manufacturing control minimizes inventory and work in progress while maximizing through put per day or per hour. Labor cost drives overall cost in the project example and effective project control requires maintaining plenty of spare parts and even spare assemblies so that schedule delays due to lack of parts are avoided. The cost of a few extra spares is small compared to the “marching army” costs of labor idled while waiting for parts to be delivered if a part fails or is damaged. Note that both organizations are maximizing the productive work per time period but the most effective method of handling material depends on the material/labor cost split. Most service organization’s costs are almost all labor so that the details of how material costs are handled have little impact on the organization’s success. Restaurants are an exception in which the cost of food ingredients is a significant portion of overall costs and must be managed carefully to achieve business success.
Note also that research and development (R &D) is a project so control for R & D in a manufacturing organization should be different than that for production; a requirement sometimes lost on poorly trained manufacturing managers. Similarly, purchasing personnel trained for a manufacturing organization typically don’t understand control for R & D and try to impose constraints appropriate only to manufacturing, e.g. no sole source procurements.
Mangers of R&D activities in manufacturing organizations should expect problems with purchasing and stand up to purchasing people. In a manufacturing organization that I managed at one stage in my career the purchasing manager insisted that the sole source procurements the R & D people wanted were illegal until I had a government auditor personally explain to him that he was wrong.
A similar problem can happen when the quality department in a manufacturing organization is also involved in R&D or project work in the same organization. They may have rules calling for source inspection that are appropriate for production material but not for special parts needed for R&D or projects, e.g. parts that cannot be handled except in a special environment.
There are sometimes sound business reasons for combining two types of organization in the same business unit, e.g., manufacturing and projects or manufacturing and services. If one type is much larger than the other type in such combinations then the management tends to be from the larger type. Unless these managers are familiar with the different control needed for each type of organizations they can cause a lot of inefficiencies. If you find yourself managing in a mixed organization make sure you learn the proper control techniques for each.
Exercises: There are no exercises for this introductory lecture.
If you find that the pace of blog posts isn’t compatible with the pace you  would like to maintain in studying this material you can buy the book “The Manager’s Guide for Effective Leadership” in hard copy or for Kindle at:
or hard copy or for nook at:
or hard copy or E-book at:

Wednesday, April 3, 2013

Review of Lectures 17 - 22

The first 16 lectures focused on how to manage so that you increase the motivation of your staff. Motivating your organization was addressed first because highly motivated workers are necessary for an effective organization and necessary to work with an effective leader in making the organization changes discussed in the lectures following lecture 16. Lectures 17-22 address the important management functions of staffing and communicating. Executing these two functions skillfully is critical to building a world class organization. The reason you should be building a world class organization is that today technology has made the workplace a global environment for almost all types of organization. If your organization isn’t world class you are likely to lose customers to competitors somewhere in the world that offer higher quality goods or services at equal or lower prices. Even governments and medical organizations are outsourcing work that can be done better or cheaper in other organizations.
Lectures 17 addressed staffing; specifically how to find and recruit the top people needed to build a world class organization and achieve a low staff turnover. It is necessary to achieve a low staff turnover rate because replacing people is both expensive and time consuming. As your organization becomes more and more effective you can expect to grow, assuming you are in an activity that permits growth. If you need to grow your staff at 10 to 15% each year you will be extremely busy with recruiting plus running your day to day work. If you have to replace workers because of a high turnover rate you may not be able to keep up with your staffing needs or afford the recruiting costs for the best talent. Lectures 1-16 taught how to develop a work environment that is conducive to low turnover. Also important to low turnover is not making mistakes in recruiting. An example of a recruiting process was discussed in lecture 17 that is proven to help recruit workers that meet an organization’s needs and fit well with the organization’s culture so that they are likely to be long term employees. The best approach to finding world class talent is to develop and maintain a network of people that are always on the lookout for exceptional young people that are candidate employees for your organization.
Lecture 18 covered the four basic principles for matching people to jobs. These are:
1.     Decisions about people are the most important decisions a manager makes
2.     Workers have a right  to competent leaders
3.     If a worker does not perform then the manager has made a mistake; don’t blame the worker
4.     Don’t give new people major assignments until they are familiar with how the organization works
Factors to be considered in matching workers to jobs include:
  • Matching the skills and experience of candidates to the requirements of the jobs
  • The compatibility of the personalities and work styles of candidates and potential coworkers
  • The impact of removing candidates from their current positions
  • The potential for career development of each candidate in the new position
  • Matching the style of innovativeness of the candidates to that demanded by the job
  • The candidates’ knowledge of the way things are done independent of what the organization chart says
  • The opinions of other managers 

Lecture 19 provides guidelines for managing your time so that you accomplish more in the time you have available for your job and other facets of your life. There are five main guidelines to remember and keep in practice:
  1. Write out six to eight short and long term goals and plans with specific actions for your work and the physical, mental and spiritual parts of your life.
  2. Schedule the actions over a week at a time, carry your schedule with you at all times and do your best to follow it.
  3. Remember to be effective with people and efficient with other work activities. This means spend as much time as necessary with people to ensure you understand them and they understand your plans and directions. Have unscheduled time in your schedule so that you have the flexibility to accept time wasters that are necessary to be effective with people.
  4. Don’t allow yourself to become a workaholic, i.e. working so many hours that you do not have enough time for the important non work things in your life. If your life is unbalanced then you are not as effective in your job as you could be.
  5. Learn how to use administrative help effectively if it is available to you. Learn to dictate to secretaries and to electronic media. Encourage your workers to use efficient practices.
Lectures 20-22 discuss ways to help workers manage their time. This topic was outlined in the introduction titled “Lectures 20-22” that is between lecture 19 and lecture 20. Go back and review that introduction before proceeding to lecture 23. If any topics in the outline are hazy reread the appropriate sections in the lectures.

If you find that the pace of blog posts isn’t compatible with the pace you  would like to maintain in studying this material you can buy the book “The Manager’s Guide for Effective Leadership” at:
or hard copy or for nook at:
or hard copy or E-book at: